CrankyEarl.com
Stop guessing. Do the math.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Analyzing your retirement plan against 10,000 random historical scenarios. Each scenario uses your full plan duration sampled from S&P 500 monthly returns (1928–2023).
Simulation Settings
These inputs affect tax calculations and return assumptions. Change them and click Re-Run Simulation.
Tax Assumptions (2026 Federal Brackets)
Applied as a flat effective rate on taxable income. Roth withdrawals are tax-free. RMDs start at age 75 (SECURE 2.0).
Return Model (per account)
Stocks = historical S&P 500 monthly returns. Bonds & Crypto use parametric distributions. Withdrawal order: HYS → Taxable → Trad → Roth → Crypto.
Stress Test (optional one-time crash)
Applies a one-time return shock to all market-exposed accounts (Roth, Trad, Taxable, Crypto) at the start of the selected retirement year. During the recovery period, normal market returns are replaced with a low-volatility ~2%/year (dividend yield only — no price appreciation), simulating a prolonged market stagnation. After the recovery period, normal historical returns resume. HYS/Cash is not affected.
Why does a later crash sometimes look worse? It depends on your account withdrawal ages.
If you retire at 57 withdrawal from HYS, Cash or Private lending, your stock accounts (Roth, Trad) may be untouched until age 63 or 65, a crash in year 1 hits those accounts — but they have years to recover before you ever touch them. Your HYS/cash is funding expenses in the meantime and is immune to market crashes. By the time you actually need the stock accounts, even a severe early crash has largely healed.
A crash right around the age you start drawing from your stock accounts is your real danger zone — there's no recovery runway, and you're forced to sell depressed shares immediately to cover expenses. That's true sequence-of-returns risk.
If your results look counterintuitive, check your account withdrawal ages — the tool is probably telling you something true about your specific plan.
Simulations Run
10,000
Success Rate
--%
Median Final Balance
$--
10th Percentile (Poor Outcome)
$--
Distribution of Final Portfolio Balances
Sequence-of-Returns Fan Chart
Portfolio value over retirement across 1,000 sampled scenarios. The bands show the 10th–90th percentile range; the bold line is the median. Wide bands = high sequence-of-returns risk.
Tax model: 2026 federal income brackets + long term capital gains rates + state flat rate. Standard deduction applied. Traditional withdrawals and 85% of SS income taxed as ordinary income. Taxable brokerage withdrawals taxed at long term capital gains rates. Roth withdrawals are tax-free. Taxes settled annually each December.
RMDs: Begin at age 75 (SECURE 2.0 — born 1960 or later). Calculated using IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. Excess RMDs above expenses are reinvested into your taxable brokerage account.
Withdrawal order: HYS → Taxable Brokerage → Traditional IRA/401(k) → Roth IRA → Crypto.